FIVE BIG QUESTIONS DRIVING WASHINGTON THIS WEEK
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, it’s another big week in Washington from the Supreme Court to Capitol Hill. As we get closer and closer to the midterms, we try to answer 5 big questions on our minds from guns to the economy. Feel free to let us know what you think in the comments!
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Let’s begin!
QUESTION 1: IS THIS THE WEEK WE SEE THE GUN DEAL?
CREDIT: Kent Nishimura / Getty Images/ Los Angeles Times
GIBBS: When the gun deal was announced, it was a framework that lacked the details of actual legislative language. And, late last week, negotiators began to seem pessimistic about getting the language actually done. On Friday, lead GOP negotiator Senator John Cornyn was booed several times at the Texas Republican Party convention. Among other resolutions, including declaring Joe Biden illegitimately elected, the Convention also condemned Cornyn and the other Republicans who have signed onto the framework. Cornyn was given this position by Mitch McConnell because he has the stature to either seek a deal the GOP could support or not seek a deal. Fortunately, reports today sound more optimistic, but this is one to watch closely over the next few days. They need the language so the Senate can act, preferably before the two-week recess that starts next week. As I have said since the beginning of these negotiations, time is generally not on the side of getting these things done. There was enough in the air last week around other Republicans grumbling about the details to make you wonder if this thing will actually happen. I’m optimistic it will. Murphy, is there hope?
MURPHY: I think they’ll get there. The Texas convention was a lamentable crank show, but Cornyn knows that and I think he’ll stay on course. My guess is his staff knew he’d get booed, not uncommon for regular Republicans at these meetings in this sad era. (You have to remember that the people who show up for this small party grassroots meetings are an often nutty fringe group of the wider GOP population. That said the crap that came out of that convention is a new low in creepy and disgusting extremism.) So I’m still betting that Cornyn and company will land the bill they agreed to and we’ll make a small badly needed step forward on gun reform legislation.
QUESTION 2: WHAT DECISIONS WILL THE SUPREME COURT HAND DOWN THIS WEEK?
GIBBS: Decisions have come down today and will continue on Thursday of this week. It doesn't feel like this is the week where their Roe decision comes out. Two things to be mindful of as you read this. First, there are a lot of big decisions in addition to Roe, from guns to climate change to immigration and the Court generally finishes its work in June, so we know there's a finite amount of time for this all to happen.
Second, can John Roberts craft a compromise that doesn’t eviscerate the Constitutional protections afforded by Roe? As Politico put it, can he channel John Marshall? He was clearly already looking for it during oral arguments. It'll likely be a tumultuous couple of weeks for the Court, particularly, as it has generally tried to stay within the bounds of public opinion, the cases before it, and the likelihood of the rulings would seem that they're about to get out of the lane of popular public opinion. If that happens, it may change the public’s view of the Court in a way not easily unwound.
MURPHY: It doesn’t feel like this is THE week to me either, but you never know. When it happens, it will be very big and the drama notch of midterms election 2022 will crank up a bigger notch. That’ll trigger a lot of hard political questions: will the money avalanche the D’s will raise from irate pro-choice donors allow them to meaningfully increase support to struggling Democratic candidates? Will young (<29) men, a highly pro-choice voter group, break their usual model and actually be motivated by this to show up and vote in this off-year election? Will suburban college educated voters, wary of the Footloose Elders Wing of the GOP but also deeply unhappy with Joe Biden, swing one way or the other based on Roe when they vote. More questions than answers right now, but soon the battle will begin.
QUESTION 3: WHAT’S THE ENDGAME FOR THE JANUARY 6TH COMMISSION?
GIBBS: It certainly seems like they're building a legal case for indictment against Trump. Obviously, that's something that only sits with the Department of Justice, which has requested the material and the transcripts of all the interviews that the January 6 Commission has conducted. I think it is fair to say that thus far, the hearings have produced an even more compelling case against Trump and the insurrectionists than we had thought and that’s without talking to Mike Pence, Ginni Thomas, John Eastman or others in the Trump administration.
That said, as the ABC News/ Ipsos poll found this week just over a third of Americans are following the hearings somewhat or very closely, though nearly 6 in 10 think Trump should be charged. I think today’s hearing will provide an even greater, more compelling picture of what happened. If it all doesn't result in a criminal case, it sure feels like it’s provided a lot more turbulence around Trump’s future in the party, even as he decides when (not if) to announce he's running for reelection. These hearings may not end in an indictment, but they may provide Republicans with a path to getting off the Trump train, if they choose to take it.
MURPHY: How can they not now? It’s pretty clear Trump is on next month’s cover of Guilty As F*!#ing Sin Magazine. I think the Georgia stuff the Jan 6 committee is focusing on today will be the biggest indictment yet: it’s such a clear and simple narrative to explain: the President of the United States leaning directly on state election officials to steal the election.
QUESTION 4: WHO EMERGES FROM THIS WEEK’S PRIMARIES?
GIBBS: Looking at the primary races today, Trump is on the ballot yet again. There’s a pretty big race in Alabama that has featured a Trump endorsement of both candidates at some point. There is a Congressional runoff in Georgia that pits Brian Kemp against Donald Trump (sound familiar?). Stay tuned for more Trump vs. the GOP even as we get closer to November!
QUESTION 5: IS A RECESSION INEVITABLE?
GIBBS: Lacking the economic ability to answer that question (though I do have a minor in economics and that only allows me to be semi-dangerous), as a communication strategist, you’d hope for the chatter these days to be on almost anything other than around the economy. In this case, you want them to be talking less about inflation, but to segue from inflation to recession is not, I'm sure, what many in the White House had in mind. We all know the Biden Administration doesn’t have a magic wand at their disposal. I alluded to this on Friday (and the Wall Street Journal wrote this story over the weekend) that at some point you’ve got to start doing whatever you can rather than announcing over and over what you’re considering. Biden did it yesterday on his beach walk talking about a gas tax holiday, something he said they’d decide on by week’s end.
MURPHY: My old boss John McCain used to quote Harry Truman and joke, “I’m always looking for a one-armed economist. With those guys it’s always ‘on the one hand, but on the other hand…’.” So who knows, but if I were the White House I would not plan on any economic miracle comeback soon. And while I’m at it, enough, careful with the gas tax holiday. It’s a dangerous idea; you are likely to get very little credit. In fact, giving people a few dimes off the price of a gallon of gas and then hoping for a gleeful public response is just pulling the tiger’s tail. You’re plenty to likely to just piss them off even more. Careful with those expectations folks…
REMEMBERING MARK SHIELDS
GIBBS: Finally we remember one of the greats and one of the more decent people in Washington, Mark Shields. He was fixture on PBS and CNN, among other places, and one of the original TV political commentators. It’s clear from all the tributes pouring in that even in a deeply divided Washington, everyone just thought he was a real decent person.
MURPHY: Mark was a great pal of ours and a wonderful human being. Nobody was more fun to hang around with on the campaign trail and I cherish my memories of time with him. An operative before he became a journalist and pundit, Mark knew the politics game from the inside out and had a special gift for understanding the vast human dynamics of it. By way of remembrance here is a link to one of my favorite Mark Shields columns, based on one of Mark’s best campaign trail bar rants called “Find a Gimmick.” Enjoy. RIP Mark.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs