Congress’s Slow Sprint To 2022
Hi Hackaroos!
Well, Congress is back in the session with a tall to do list before their next holiday break. That’s where we begin before the latest media frenzy over the latest COVID variant plus some tidbits. Here’s a tidbit tease: Murphy has changed his California party registration!
We hope you all had fun Thanksgivings without too much politics getting in the way of the turkey! And Happy Hannukah!
(cover photo cred: Drew Angerer / Getty Images News)
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Let’s begin!
Congress’s Never-ending Year End To Do List
Gibbs:
Well, here’s just some of what Congress has on its to do list for this coming month: fund the government by the end of the week, raise the debt ceiling by the middle of the month, pass the defense bill, which will have a host of amendments (read: it will take up time on the Senate floor), do the Build Back Better bill, as well as get important nominations done. Just listing all that has made me tired! Congress is a little bit like your son or daughter who's a college student: they don't tend to write their term paper until they have to. Congress takes that to the nth degree. But the good news is, with all that is happening in the world, neither party sees any upside in shutting down the government, thankfully. I also think cooler heads will prevail in some way on making sure that the debt ceiling isn't complicated as well, though I'm less sure about that one. Lastly, I think if I was a betting person, and the over under was Christmas for Build Back Better, I would probably now take the over on when the Build Back Better plan gets done in the Senate. I think this is more likely something that will get done before the State of the Union than before Christmas.
Murphy:
Indeed Gibbsie. It's not their nature to do anything quickly. The Motto of the U.S. Senate used to be “E pluribus unum” but now it’s “why rush?” And, it’s hard to rush when they still have the problem of landing the President’s big domestic spending bill in the Senate, which is not in the clutches of the Progressives the way the House is. So, there is some hard grinding ahead, although it seems pretty certain that Senator Manchin and Speaker Pelosi have quietly agreed to at least a basic framework of where to land the bill. We’ll see…. The Progressives still don't understand that partisan control is not ideological control. So, Senator Manchin remains in the driver’s seat and I think he's going to win 90% or more of what he wants in the end, which will make for some turbulence in the weeks ahead.
The Made For Cable TV Variant
Murphy:
That said Gibbsie, the big, big news – just turn on cable news – is we have a new variant of COVID-19, complete with a scary Andromeda Strain/Satan Bug sci-fi name; the omicron. (I think I used to have an old Sony TV with a name like that…) Anyway, it is depressing stuff but since we know very little about it at this early point who really knows what the future holds? Nobody. But we will all know a lot more in 2-3 weeks. My trusty campaign spider sense tells me that in a couple years there will be Columbia Journalism School workshops on how the media got far too excited too quickly on too little facts during the initial coverage of the Omicron variant. There is far more speculation than hard science driving the headlines at this moment. That said, it could all be right on, so I’m headed to the toilet paper warehouse the minute I finish writing this. I do think all this panicky noise is a badly needed opportunity for Joe Biden to jump into the spotlight and try for a little restart. We now know that COVID is very good at frustrating voters and eating at the polling numbers of incumbent Presidents. Biden has learned that even when you step up the response, you get no credit, just more blame as patience erodes. Plus, lots of stubborn people hate the smart, but castor oil flavored things the President and most leaders are advising; wear masks around others and get the vaccine, complete with all its scary and Internet crankery vulnerable… science. (Pity us this new world where IQ 180 people pull off vaccine development miracles only to have legions of IQ 80 people refuse to protect themselves while struggling to figure out how Velcro works.) So there is no win for Biden on COVID politics by just riding along and giving good advice. But I think the spotlight on this is coming to Biden anyway, so he has no choice but to run with it. But I think he can take a new approach. I’ll given my tactical prescription in a minute Dr. Gibbs, but first, what say you?
Gibbs:
Yeah, I totally agree, Murphy. The country wants and needs a strong leader when it comes to battling COVID and I think this may also give the White House an opportunity to fix what was probably a bit of a misstep on boosters. There's no way we should have left less than two weeks before Thanksgiving to begin approving booster shots for everybody in America, given the fact that millions of people got on planes and many, many millions more sat with friends and relatives in their houses over the past week. Booster shots should have been advocated for and approved well in advance of this. So, I think it is a moment to reassert himself. It's a moment, as you said, to look presidential. There are perils because, like everything in our society right now, COVID is terribly politicized and it moves people very quickly into their corners. I still tend to believe COVID is a two-thirds, one-third corner, which is different than most political issues. But it definitely gets a group pretty exercised on the right.
Murphy:
I think Biden’s best move is a far tougher tone on the 1/3 that are on the wrong side of the vax argument. Sure, that’ll enrage the Chucklehead Bund wing of the GOP, but those morons are already so busy waving “Let’s Go Brandon,” they’ll lost no matter what. So, rally the 2/3 and make them your army. Biden should engage them; particularly on school closures. Want your kid’s school closed, then keep avoiding the vaccine and spraying your flehm without a mask. Time to have a new donkey to pin the blame tale on instead of the incumbent President. Unite the 2/3 against the 1/3 and go on classy offense.
Gibbs:
On the media stuff, as we're soon to be entering into the third year of this, there's definitely overhype in a moment in which nothing else was driving the news. I think politically the headline for Biden today was smart politics, which is the variant is cause for concern, not panic. And I think that's most of all what the American people also want to see in their public health leadership on this right now. Getting ready for what could happen and making sure we're able to understand the challenging science, but also understanding that's going to take a couple of weeks so it doesn't mean you have to go out and buy hundreds of rolls of toilet paper because you're going to be locked in your house.
Murphy:
As we do this on Zoom, I noticed the suspiciously large pile of toilet paper behind you in your bunker there so I guess you've cut yourself down only 90 crates.
Gibbs:
Probably better we don't tell the readers when I first went grocery shopping in the pandemic and started to store food in closets. That's just better left unwritten.
Murphy:
I won’t tell.
TIDBITS:
Murphy:
Things that will soon happen in America for good or bad usually happen first in California, which is why I've watched with interest the startup of California’s new “Common Sense Party” – a new center right outfit here in the Golden State, led by former Congressman Tom Campbell and other GOP moderate conservatives. This gang of purposeful ex-GOP troublemakers are trying to get official ballot status here in California. The pitch is fiscally conservative and socially inclusive, with a backbeat of actually believing in the rule of law. To get status, the Common Sensors have to convince 77,000 Californians to switch their party affiliation to Common Sense Party by January 2022. It’s very easy for a CA voter to do this online; takes about 2-3 minutes. I know because I just did it. While I still consider myself an old-school Republican at heart, I think this Common Sense Party is a worthwhile experience here in California where the GOP has become both hapless and hopeless. So I’ll give crazy, but a worthy longshot a try. If you are curious, check them out here: https://cacommonsense.org
(If you are a CA voter, there is a link to easily change your party registration to Common Sense and help them break through. If you don’t like it, you can easily change back to GOP, Decline to State, or even Gibbs’ comrades on the Democratic side. In fact, if you would like to see classier conservative opposition, hop over for a while before January 2022 and help the Common Sensors get official party status in CA!)
Gibbs:
I'm interested most in this juxtaposition of the phrase common sense within a few words of the notion of a political party. Very interesting experiment, Murphy!
Murphy:
As I said, we are making history here. Uphill as it will be.
Gibbs:
For my first tidbit, tomorrow the Supreme Court hears what could be its biggest political case of the year, the Mississippi abortion case, which, like many things on the Supreme Court docket, has the real chance to become a central theme in our political discourse in 2022. Most of the press has been around what happened in Texas, but I think the longer-term impact to a woman's right to choose will be decided in this case rather than in the Texas case.
And, for my last tidbit, I'm going to poke Murphy a little bit since you often remind our readers that you can have the majority control, not ideological control and that being in Congress is more than just how many Twitter followers you have. What say you about the recent Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Twitter) podcast appearance with Matt Gaetz (R-Prison), saying that Kevin McCarthy lacked the support to become Speaker, which then quickly caused Speaker-Hopeful Kevin McCarthy to call Marjorie Taylor Greene and now the Congresswoman is excited about “his plan,” though nobody has enumerated that yet. It seems like the challenge isn't just with Progressives on the Democratic side, Murphy?
Murphy:
Bad ideas spread! AOC/Squad-ism has infected and further inspired the cranks of the Republican Party just as the early Freedom Caucus Band of Clowns inspired here and now it’s spiraling. Meanwhile, just when we need a ballsy grown-up to blow the whistle on these toxic fools, Kevin McCarthy has become so spineless he can now slide under a closed door, so it doesn't surprise me he's scuttling over to pander to these shameful cranks as fast as he can. Again, check out the Common Sense Party, Californians. Maybe we’ll run a CSP against him in the future!
Gibbs:
This will be McCarthy's continual challenge for the next year. With House Republicans confident they can win the majority, Kevin McCarthy will need 218 of them in the beginning of January 2023 to be elected Speaker. The challenge that McCarthy is going to run into is going to be the same one that Nancy Pelosi has been dealing with for a couple of terms as Speaker, which is how to get to 218 and put together a majority coalition. The difference is Pelosi has a lot of practice doing it and Kevin McCarthy has just gotten on the roller coaster.
Murphy:
Yeah, no doubt there are factions in the House beyond just the top tier crackpots who are scheming to replace McCarthy. But McCarthy is very good at being sort of a congressional concierge and so he’ll put up a fight. It is hard to wrestle an eel… so it's going to be one of the most interesting GOP dynamics post election. I’ll say this, if the GOP don't win a House majority, I’m quite sure Kevin's gone. But if they do win the majority, I think he's got a solid chance of coming back as Speaker, but will still likely face opposition.
We hope everybody is enjoying those leftovers and we'll be back Friday as the Washington turkey trot never ends.
Murphy and Gibbs