Capitol Hill Is Going M.A.D.
Hi Hackaroos!
Well, things continue to be touch and go on the Hill with President Biden finally putting on his old Senate hat to try to salvage his agenda (and the mid-terms).
We start there, then turn to the situation on the border with Haiti and then some tidbits (including a movie we think all you Hackaroos should go stream out this weekend)!
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(cover photo credit: Anna Moneymaker/ Getty Images News)
Let’s begin…
This Is M.A.D.
Gibbs:
So, we talked in the last newsletter about the state of the legislative process for the Democrats and the current maneuvering that will really make or break the 2022 mid-terms. Well, that process began in earnest on Wednesday with President Biden huddling with Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer as well as separate meetings with both moderate and progressive Democrats in the Oval Office. It shows he understands the stakes and many were glad to see he’s involved now at this level. It was time for it to happen since only he can bring all of this together.
Murphy:
I agree, though we’ll see if it ends up being too late to bring in the Democratic therapist in chief. These big negotiations always have late crescendos and need a hard deadline; nothing focuses the minds of legislators like a metaphorical hanging in the morning. The vote Speaker Pelosi promised moderates on the infrastructure bill next Monday is that deadline. But Progressives are threatening en mass to torpedo the President’s own bill if they don’t get a deal on the big domestic spending gusher that Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have already declared dead on arrival. But if House progressives go all Red Oktober and vote down Biden’s own infrastructure deal, it’ll be well…
… and totally self-inflicted. The only good news will be that the Republicans will be too engulfed in delirious laughter to be able manage straight faces when they start honking out their attack lines.
Gibbs:
Up to now, this process has been defined by a lot of posturing and that only has increased the level of animosity and mistrust on all sides. But for the Democrats, the only other option to getting something done is Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) Yes, I dusted off the old Cold War era deterrence term! The theory went if one side started a nuclear war, presumably something they believed was in only their self-interest, the other side would retaliate by doing the same. The result wouldn’t be one side winning a nuclear war, but instead the annihilation of all of humanity. In this case, if either side here decides to act in what they believe is only their self-interest, no one wins because Dems end up with nothing – no bipartisan infrastructure bill and no plan to expand educational opportunities, lower prescription drug and health care costs, make the wealthy and companies pay their fair share of taxes, invest in clean energy to create jobs and combat climate change and give the middle class a tax cut. If it gets to that point (and I don’t think it will) it will be very bad for the country in need of much of what I mentioned above, but it will be really, really bad for Democratic Party and the Presidency of Joe Biden.
Murphy:
M.A.D.! I like that and couldn’t agree more. If anything, that’s the best reason for the progressive Dems to stand down and actually get a deal.
Gibbs:
To be clear, everyone is not going to get everything. They never were! And if this fails, everyone gets nothing. There’s no message for 2022. Are we going to run on “next time we’ll do better”?! Good luck with that! This debate is the pivotal moment. This is likely the last robust legislative push for the first two years of the Biden term and, depending on 2022, may be the last hurrah for the entire four years of this Biden term. The legislative train (sorry for the pun) is leaving the station shortly and the question is whether Democrats are going to get on board?
Murphy:
It’s normal in political battle royales to see some sharp elbows, but the level of distrust between Democratic moderates and progressives is amazing. They should be able to pass their President’s first signature bill and then find a deal to pass the second bill. Instead, every Democratic bloc in the House is trying to make the cover of Hostage Taker magazine. It’s a mess and a real threat to Biden. Who would have guessed that after the Trump train wreck, the new narrative on Joe Biden post Kabul, France, the border crisis and now a potential infrastructure deal meltdown is… “can’t govern.” That’s kryptonite for a guy like Biden who ran, and was elected, as the steady hand of competence and experience.
A Biden Malaise
Murphy:
It’s so bad this week, Biden is even taking hard incoming from the New York Times! Political columnist Frank Bruni gave the POTUS both barrels this week:
It’s a tough piece, but hard to totally deny. A new, unhelpful narrative is growing around Biden and they need a clean win in the budget wars to shut it down.
If you think Washington is messy, don’t even think about look at these heart-breaking pictures from the border with the horrible situation for Haitian migrants. Not surprisingly, Biden is facing exploitation of a complex and tricky situation from both nativist Republicans on the right, and open-border Democrats on his left. While I’m sure border tsar Vice President Harris will have the whole thing sorted out in a few days, these pictures are becoming wall paper on Fox News and will be coming to your living rooms in the form of campaign ads very soon.
Gibbs:
This is one of those challenges that lands on the President's desk, which means they're no good solutions, and there's almost always very few even decent options. Border crossings have been vexing to President Obama, President Trump and President Biden. The pictures of security on horseback using reins on migrants are horrific. So, too, are the pictures of thousands and thousands living under a bridge. It’s good to see people are being moved into shelters, but this problem isn’t going away anytime soon. Tragically, we know the politics of immigration is candy to Trump’s base, and therefore finding leaders in the GOP willing to find solutions simply doesn’t exist to the level it did just a few years ago.
Lastly, here’s my memo to cabinet secretaries: Your job is to keep things off of the front pages and off the President's desk unless the White House wants you to be on the front pages and on the President's desk. Your role is to manage these things so that the White House doesn't.
Murphy:
That is so correct. I don't even know the names of some of these cabinet secretaries and at the rate things are going, I'm not going to have to learn any. There'll be some new names soon.
The Debt Drama Continues
Gibbs:
I think everyone's watching the politics and hoping for an injection of responsibility around the debt limit. The House sent their legislation to tie continued government funding and raising the debt ceiling together over to the Senate. Schumer will get a vote on this Monday afternoon. It will be filibustered by the acolyte of great responsible government Ted Cruz, (R-Cancun). This might feel like it’s in the background compared to reconciliation, but the impact of a shutdown and a default have real economic consequences. We'll know more early next week about what happens, but don’t spend the weekend holding your breath on this one. Republicans will filibuster this and it won’t pass. Democrats may still think Mitch McConnell will blink. I'm not sure what about Merrick Garland for Supreme Court Justice or replacing Ruth Bader Ginsburg makes people think Mitch is going to somehow feel bad about creating his own set of rules and precedents regardless of what he said only a few months before. Plan B, here we come.
Murphy:
The question for the Rs is, will they be satisfied to go a few rounds raising the salience of huge Democrat spending and then shut down the crazy before it becomes dangerous brinkmanship that will greatly alarm the pro-business wing of the Republican Party? Or will they wind up in a dangerous game of chicken? Debt limit political theater is like a shock horror show… the juggling running chainsaws while riding a unicycle is fun for about 60 seconds, but if you push it too far and run up the risk… somebody is likely to lose an arm.
Gibbs:
Man, hangings in the morning and losing appendages to juggling chainsaws, you’re dark today, Murphy.
Murphy:
I’m doing my homage to Sam Peckinpah.
Gibbs:
Well, I’ll just say, for all of you out there wondering, don't spend a lot of time Googling the term “Republicans winning government shut down fights.” They've tried this numerous times in the last decade, and quite frankly, it's like walking behind a horse and startling it. The result is you get kicked. And kicked hard. It never works out well.
TIDBITS:
Murphy:
Here is a recommendation from the Hacks on Tap popcorn club: It’s a good week to watch a very funny 2014 movie from France; The French Minister. Set in France and with a great French political twist, the crazy staff life it lampoons is the same everywhere. The mini tornado bit when the main character enters a room alone is worth a view.
Murphy:
Budget wonk Maya MacGuineas pitched my favorite debt ceiling reform plan back in 2017. Why not link debt limit votes both to spending bills (like McConnell is trying to do now) and tax cut bills. Whenever something costs money, link a debt ceiling vote. My guess is that would de-weaponize debt ceiling politics too sweet since it would force intellectual honesty on both sides; when Democrats spend like drunken sailors and Republicans cut tax revenue like drunken accountants. Read her great piece on debt ceiling reform here
Gibbs:
As Representative Yarmuth from Kentucky said this week, “The statutory debt ceiling is stupid. We need to get rid of it.” Along those lines, Murphy, it's become nothing but a stupid weapon at a moment in which we need to show responsible governing of the country (it is possible). This is too much of a flame for moths to not tinker with in order to create challenges. They know they can get attention, but it often ends badly and the reputation of our country ends up being tarnished.
Murphy:
I say don’t end it, mend it!
Gibbs:
In case you missed it late last night, Joe Biden won Arizona. Again.
A HACKS POLL ALERT
Murphy:
Grim news for Joe Biden out of Iowa. While admittedly not a Biden base state, he did get 45% there in 2016. In a new Des Moines Register poll, Biden’s approval rating has plunged down to just 31%.
Gibbs:
It links to my point from a couple of newsletters ago, which is the 2022 election in an electorate where Joe Biden is in a much different position than in 2020 is extraordinarily bad news for Democrats on the ballot in 2022. Apropos to the beginning of this newsletter. The most likely indicator for the outcome of 2022 is the approval rating of the President. I think this is still primarily driven by COVID, but it’s worth watching given what we see in this poll. Murphy, to your point, it's not a base state, it’s really not even a swing state anymore, but it gives you a sense of the potential deterioration of the political environment and what it may mean in a little more than a year.
Murphy:
The thing I'm curious about is that if Biden has trouble in Midwestern Iowa, I wonder how his numbers are looking in critical Wisconsin, where there’s a big Senate race in 2022. Wisconsin is bluer than Iowa, but they are culturally linked and trouble in Iowa may indicate rising trouble for the POTUS down US Route 18 to nearby Wisconsin.
We hope everyone’s weekend polls better than Biden is in Iowa!
Murphy and Gibbs