Biden on the Brink?
Hello Hackaroos!
For all of our readers in Texas, happy early voting season! Don’t forget to head to the polls as we officially kick off the 2022 midterm election season with the first primary voting of the year! Though before we get to the midterms, President Biden (and the world for that matter) has to figure out what to do about a potential war in Ukraine. That’s where we begin before turning to some tidbits.
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Let’s begin…
Civilians attend a military exercise for territorial defense amid the tension on the border with Russia, in Ukrainian capital Kiev on Feb. 13, 2022 (Photo by STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
ON THE BRINK OR NOT?
GIBBS: While it may not be first on voters’ minds, it's likely to be first in the news for the foreseeable future, and that’s, of course, the situation in Ukraine. It could definitely shake things up politically for Biden as he’s trying to get his domestic agenda through, most of all taking up the President’s valuable time. There are things we know and things we don't know. The White House has said that an invasion by the 140,000 plus Russian troops sitting at the border with Ukraine could move across the frozen ground as early as Wednesday, as did Ukraine’s President (though he claims he was only kidding – hilarious!). While at the same time there seems to be a furious back and forth across Europe to try to prevent the invasion. In just the last 24 hours, we’ve seen some interesting developments. Vladimir Putin and his chief of foreign affairs say there’s more time and reason to talk, while just this morning Russia’s Defense Ministry has said some troops were being pulled back from around Ukraine, even as large-scale military exercises continue. Is Putin changing course and suggesting he won’t invade or is this a diversion on the eve of an onslaught? Only time will tell. Thus far, Biden and his team have navigated this tricky situation well, most notably playing information warfare and making a lot of intelligence known to the world, even better than the Russians have. Bottom line for us Hacks: this continues to take up a lot of time (any President’s most precious resource) and energy at the White House. Murphy, I still think the White House should do your speech idea. Thoughts?
MURPHY: Of course! They’re sitting on the clock waiting for the State of the Union, but they don't understand that they can set up the SOTU with a strong speech to the country on Ukraine. Just explain the situation and the stakes and the American/NATO plan and you’re already crossing third base. To your larger point, I agree. Our friend Ian Bremmer (check out his newsletter here) made the same point in a comment on our page; voters may not focus on foreign stuff (the late GOP pollster Arthur Finkelstein used to joke that most voters think an Afghan is a cat… if they went to college, they think it’s a rug), a foreign crisis can take over everything fast. And for a POTUS suffering from a weakness narrative, handling something like this is critical for Joe Biden. He’s still bleeding from Kabul. To the President’s credit, I think he’s doing a good job on this. He’s slowly turning up the thumbscrews on Russian Bully Boy Putin (in a way only an ex-KGB goon like Putin can really appreciate) while cleverly beating Putin to the punch on any fake news the wily former Soviet apparatchik may try to create to justify an invasion. But the problem for Biden is not enough people understand the plan here, so he better tell the country and fast. Otherwise, the hysterics on cable TV news and on the web will tell the country what is going on and their story will be to blame the whole invasion on Biden for failing to stop it while dangling the specter of World War Three. Set the agenda Mr. President, or it’ll be set for you.
THE UNPOPULARITY CONTEST
GIBBS: Speaking of stability, there’s a new CNN poll that shows a majority of Democrats do not want Joe Biden be the nominee in 2024 by a margin of 51-45 percent. For Trump and the Republicans, 50 percent wanted him as the nominee, while 49 percent did not. One big caveat here that all these polls for 2024 are very early and they no doubt factor in a lot of short-term political frustrations. However, it’s still somewhat stunning that heading into the beginning of an election year, the essential titular heads of each of the parties is not necessarily viewed by the base of the party with a lot of political health. It’s not fatal yet, but it’s a warning to both. When poll respondents were asked who should be the next nominee, it was pretty disperse on the Democratic side as to who the next standard bearer might be with Bernie Sanders on top with just 5% and then Michelle Obama (who wouldn’t run for all the gold in Fort Knox!) in second place at 4%. Vice President Kamala Harris was at 2%. For the GOP, it’s 21% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and then a whole lot of people at 1%, including the one and only Don Jr. So, still a long road ahead for both parties!
MURPHY: Interesting stuff. While, as you say it’s early, it still shows some trouble for both Biden and Trump. The 50-50 situation in the GOP is telling (and I’ve been trying to straighten out you and Axe on this on the podcast for quite a while!). We’ll see where it goes. Biden can fix a lot of it with a series of noisy wins and stronger election year messaging. Trump – being insane and extremely wearying even to his many hostages inside the GOP elected classes – is on a harder glidepath to change. That said, he is still the major force inside the GOP. For now. Check out Jonathan Martin’s well-reported piece on the efforts of Mitch McConnell and others to remove the campaign losing Trump virus from the GOP here in the New York Times. I couldn’t approve more of Mitch’s Bugs Bunny like efforts:
TIDBITS
MURPHY: First, a disclaimer. Evan McMullin is a friend of mine and I’m supporting his race for Senate. That said, on to the tidbit: there's a good Salt Lake City Tribune article about Evan’s fascinating run this year for U.S. Senate in Utah. (McMullin being the former CIA agent turned 2016 anti-Trump independent presidential candidate. In 2016, McMullin received 21% of the vote in Utah.). Anyway, the interesting thing is this: McMullin is running this year against GOP incumbent Mike Lee. Polling shows the unpopular Lee with shaky support, but we are talking about rock sold GOP Utah here. McMullin’s best shot to win is to peel off anti-Trump Republicans (they exist in Utah in greater numbers than other red states), independents and conservative Democrats. And McMullin has a shot. As the Salt Lake City Trib story explains, many state Democrats think a moderate conservative like McMullin is a far better outcome than six more years of wingnut Mike Lee (or losing yet again with a Democratic candidate who cannot get elected in conservative Utah). Democratic star Ben McAdams – who's the rarest of things, a Utah Democratic electoral success story having been elected to the U.S. Congress in 2018 (and narrowly losing reelection in 2020) – is organizing an effort at the state Democratic convention in late April to nominate… nobody. Leave it blank for Senate. That would give McMullin a real shot; making him the coalition candidate to defeat Mike Lee. One interesting sign: in the first quarter McMullin actually outraised incumbent Mike Lee. If McAdams is successful in April, this one could really heat up. Stay tuned.
GIBBS: Interesting! Well, not that we need to give Axe any more love, but my tidbit is his op-ed in New York Times on the case for humility for Biden in his State of the Union. It’s a good read from someone who knows a bit about putting these speeches together. Check it out!
We’ll be back on Friday. See you then!
Murphy and Gibbs