As California Goes, So Goes Virginia?
Hi Hackaroos!
So, the California recall came and went as we predicted (or at least as one of us predicted) and so now it’s onto to the next big race in Virginia, but not before lots of drama ahead in Washington.
Let’s begin in the Golden State…
(cover photo credit: MediaNews Group/East Bay Times)
Lessons From Recall World
Murphy:
Greetings Gibbsie, from magnificent Cape Canaveral, where I had the great joy of watching the Inspiration 4 mission blast off Wednesday night, taking my friend Jared Isaacson into orbit. So, my head has been in the clouds… literally. What's going on?
Gibbs:
Very cool. It sounds like the event was out of this world!
Murphy:
Ba-da-boom! It was amazing.
Gibbs:
Well, Murphy, while you were dreaming of outer space, a lot has been going on down here on Earth.
Murphy:
Well, I know I’m going to have to eat some crow because I pulled a Gibbs-esque Lindsey Graham on infrastructure move and predicted a high single digit win for Gavin Newsom, who instead won with over 60 percent of voters rejecting the recall. It was always going to go Newsom’s way, but give him credit… Gavin still did significantly better than conventional wisdom; it’s clear Democrats ran home to their leader in the end. And Larry Elder was central casting perfect as the sort of unelectable Trumpian candidate that CA candidates dream about running against. Still, Newsom’s win will give him a chance to reset in California, where he’s had more than a normal share of challenges and stumbles. Since he has another in-the-bag re-elect coming in just over a year, Newsom could easily emerge in 2023 as an exciting new face for Democrats on a national level; especially if Joe Biden cannot manage a comeback. Look out New Hampshire.
Gibbs:
Undoubtedly an impressive win. My favorite reaction came from the smart and hardworking Washington Post reporter Dave Weigel who tweeted that one dinner at the French Laundry ended up costing $276 million!
To continue to focus on your trip to see your friend in orbit, Newsom’s national and state aspirations are back and in a rocket and launching at potentially full speed. He's didn't just win the race, but simply blew the margins away. I think there's an interesting lesson for Democrats. I would never want to overread the lessons of the current California electorate, because unless things are going catastrophically wrong, a Democrat should win statewide given the registration advantage. But again, I think they did a masterful job in making what is almost always a referendum (looking at you, Murphy circa 2003 with Arnold) into a choice between Newsom and Trumpism. This provides some important lessons for Democrats throughout the remainder of 2021, and, more importantly, into the crucial midterm elections in 2022.
Murphy:
I agree with that. Democratic bedwetting is one of life’s few certainties. Now I think all eyes turn to the Old Dominion of Virginia which, along with New Jersey, elects a new Governor this November. I think the press will cover the VA race more as a referendum on Joe Biden; Virginia is close and California is – to the Beltway – another planet and far, far away. After Newsom’s big win – even if it was essentially a Harlem Globetrotters game…
…and never in doubt – Terry McAuliffe is now officially praying for a big win; he too has Presidential ambitions and I’m sure he doesn’t want to hear about Gavin Newsom every day for the next two to six years.
Gibbs:
You know, it’s funny, as the California results were coming in, I started thinking about Virginia and started looking back at historic election returns from Virginia because, again, while I'm always a little nervous looking at an off-year election and projecting a year forward, the Biden win there in 2020 was pretty big. Many Democrats remember being nervous because the votes came in a bit later than usual, but when they woke up, Joe Biden had 54% of the vote, which was a 10-point win over Trump. That margin, along with the 9% margin Governor Ralph Northam got in his 2017 race, was higher than a lot of the top of the ticket Democrats had been getting. Hillary got 49.8% in 2016 and won by 5.4%. Terry McAuliffe got 48% in his successful bid in 2013, but won by just 2.5% (a Libertarian candidate took almost 7% that year). In 2014, a good year for Republicans, Sen. Mark Warner almost lost re-election, winning by less than 1% while garnering 49.2% of the vote.
So, I was thinking, there are two very, very tough congressional seats in Virginia held by Democrats. In 2020, these races were pretty darn close in a commonwealth(!) that Joe Biden won by 10 points. If Terry McAuliffe isn't winning by 10 points, what does that mean for the outlook for these hotly contested seats? What does that say about the overall political environment Democrats will be in come 2022. If next year, the Virginia electorate is a +3, +5 or +7 Biden electorate, the results could be telling. Virginia was always in a far better position to give us a deeper read on exactly what you said Murphy, which is the political health of Joe Biden and its impact on 2022. As we know, those dynamics will drive the outcome of these important midterm elections. A lot to analyze as this race plays out over the next few weeks.
Murphy:
Absolutely. McAuliffe will argue that, unlike Newsom, he actually had a real, self-funded opponent instead of a radio talk show host. And there is truth to that; it’s a generically tougher race even if Virginia is becoming more and more Democratic.
High Debt Drama In Washington Ahead
Gibbs:
As our faithful readers go through this newsletter today, they should keep in mind that in less than two weeks, Congress has to figure out how to fund the government for some part of the next year. Funding runs out at midnight on September 30th, the end of the fiscal year. Additionally, Democrats have said they’ll add increasing the debt ceiling to this funding legislation plus sweeten the whole pot with an increase in money available for recent natural disasters, daring the GOP to risk economic calamity, the U.S. government defaulting on its obligations and voting against helping their own constituents after a catastrophe. And, as we write this, I'm beginning to get a little anxious with less than two weeks to go. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this movie before and frankly no one should want to see the sequel!
I think Republicans, particularly Mitch McConnell, are playing an extraordinarily dangerous game with a fragile economy in recovery after the shock of COVID. And for him to insist that because Democrats control government then raising the debt limit is their responsibility alone, misremembers a lot about the history of how the debt limit was raised last time under Donald Trump because Democrats did the heavy lifting there too. It also forgets the eight or so trillion dollars in spending and debt that the Trump administration added to this process. So, this is a game of chicken with a guy who has told everyone that his party is not going be there to help fix this problem. And let me tell you, Mitch McConnell does not care what the New York Times editorial board thinks. Democrats think they can shame McConnell and have Republicans cave at the end to ensure disaster is averted, but I’m not sure he’ll decide to be responsible here.
Murphy:
Debt limit politics are nitroglycerin. In the short term, Republicans are moving the domestic agenda to a discussion of debt and spending, which is good for them since these outrageously huge spending plans are a Democratic dream. But after round one and the debate is generated, if a debt ceiling game of chicken escalated to a point of no return; could be a political disaster. Have no doubt the GOP’s business allies will be furious as will many sick of Washington gamesmanship voters. So, if I were Mitch, I’d start the fight, spotlight crazy Democratic spending, and then end it fast. Nobody wants 1914.
Gibbs:
There’s not just the debt limit drama ahead, but there’s also the increasing Democratic drama over reconciliation that is in near full swing right now.
Sens. Manchin and Sinema both visited the White House late this week. House Committees continued to assemble their portions of the legislation and it was, well, in a word…bumpy. Moderate Dems don’t like some of the tax increases, don’t like the prescription drug pricing plan and some (still) don’t like that items such as lifting the cap of deducting state and local taxes isn’t in the bill.
Several moderates want to negotiate first on the size of the bill and then fill in the details, arguing that taking votes on a $3.5 trillion package that is never going to become law makes no sense. Instead, they say, decide the total number capable of passing the House and the Senate, say $1.9 trillion and go from there. Moderates, many of which are in marginal swing districts are worried about the voting now on a bill that simply isn't going to resemble what becomes law, but they know all too well their opponent next Fall isn’t going to give them the benefit of that because in close elections, that’s just not how negative ads work.
While that has a certain logic to that path legislatively, it assumes that nobody is using this process to gain leverage for the final outcome. That’s actually happening on both sides of the Democratic Party. Folks like Bernie Sanders have now linked the bipartisan infrastructure bill’s passage to the passage of reconciliation. If we get one, we get both. But if we don’t get reconciliation, then…
Needless to say, more on this next week as the House takes all these pieces and makes one big legislative pie.
Murphy:
The Dems really could screw this all up. The infrastructure bill – remember that? – is the big political winner here; they are nuts to screw with it. Take the win! And the Dem Libs should know they cannot move Manchin; the normal primary pressure points don’t work with him. He’s fireproof. They should get ready to take an under $T bill and like it; no shame in declaring victory and taking half of a very, very big loaf. But since most Congressional Progressives seem to think their Congressional Districts reflect the rest of the country, they may learn a tough lesson in 2022.
Gibbs:
Well, speaking of not screwing it up. I saw this clip on Twitter and all I can say is please, more of this! Great advice from Rep. Sean Maloney. Not surprisingly, he’s running the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle.
Murphy:
We’ll see! That’s it from Cape Canaveral, Gibbsie, now I'm off to the local Waffle House to take the real Florida pulse on politics. I’ll see if anybody actually uses the term “budget reconciliation.” Bet you 1000 waffles they don’t.
Gibbs:
As you mentioned at the very top of this, you had to eat some crow from the California results, but I've been to those Waffle Houses and that’s not on the menu, my friend. But don't forget when you get ‘em scattered, smothered and covered that you still owe me money on that California thing. So don't spend your entire fortune at the Waffle House.
Murphy:
Don't worry, you're going to get paid and I’ve got to collect on Lindsey Graham voting no on infrastructure wager you laid on me. We’ll settle up soon!
On that note, enjoy your weekends and we’ll see you on Tuesday!
Murphy and Gibbs