Another Special Hacks on Tap Mailbag Edition
Hello Hackaroos,
Well, since Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson spent most of the week answering questions, we decided to follow suit and answer some of your questions in this special Mailbag edition of the newsletter. We’re biased, but we’re pretty sure your questions beat a lot of what we saw on the Hill these past few days (and thankfully since this isn’t the podcast we can’t be interrupted during our answers… though we’re sure Lindsey Graham would love to try anyway!). And, just to make this realistic, we decided to yell each of these questions to each other and interrupt during the answers!
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Let’s begin… Mailbag style…
Your Questions on the State of Politics…
re: Reading Between Biden's Polling newsletter
Brian Perkins: Hacks on Tap, I mostly agree, but sorry… I have to strongly disagree about Biden’s “anchor” since most of the so-called lefty moves he’s made have resonated with the majority of Americans. No, it is the lukewarm centrists, especially Manchin and Sinema who are the biggest problem in his own party.
MURPHY: Brian, I gotta call ‘em as I see em. Check out this poll from the WSJ, done by our pal John Anzalone, Biden’s chief pollster. Check out the job approval numbers on handling the number one issue: inflation and the economy. Under 40%. That is an anchor. If Biden can change it, he’ll do a lot better in November. If not, well…
GIBBS: Brian, you are right that most of Biden’s proposals had majority support of Americans. Unfortunately, the process and its arguments overwhelmed the substance and the ability for people to focus on it and for Democrats to sell it. In the end, the size of the bill wasn’t going to happen given Manchin and Sinema’s opposition. I wish Dems had cut a deal earlier for a smaller but passable plan. To me, it was a foul on both sides of the Dem party (I’m playing on a March Madness theme here!) to not have figured out together how to get this done at a funding level that could have passed.
Joe McKenna: Guys-- I live in suburban Pittsburgh and am being inundated with TV ads from all the Republican candidates for Gov./Senate, but not a single ad for the Dem Senate candidates. Any idea why the Dems are not advertising
MURPHY: The GOP race is full of well-funded candidates and it’s close so it’s a TV ad war galore. On the Democratic side Lt Gov John Fetterman is raising a ton of cash from small donors online (think Bernie; who used the same fundraising formula to great success with grass roots progressives.). Expect more and more Fetterman paid media soon. His opponents, Congressman Conor Lamb from western PA, is more strapped for cash… probably saving his dough for a later blast. Philly is also expensive, Lamb may be spending his limited cash in other smaller markets like Scranton that are full of Democratic primary voters.
GIBBS: Murphy is correct here. The bigger personal wealth here is with Dr. Oz and the other GOP candidates had to follow on TV. So, their primary matured onto TV earlier. But, fret not! Fetterman is up and Lamb will likely be so soon too. The biggest difference over the past few years in these tossup Senate races is no one is going to lose because of money. Between the candidates, the party committees and outside groups, there’s so much cash floating around to be spent that no one is going to lack for money in the end.
re: Will President Biden’s Response to Putin Win the War of Public Opinion?
(our Bulletin friend) Ian Bremmer: The midterms are likely lost already thanks to fundamentals. Doing necessary but unpopular stuff early in the 4-year term is still good politics.
GIBBS: First, subscribe to Ian’s newsletter here: https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com. Well worth the read! This is the biggest story in the world. The outcome is hugely important. So, good policy can lead to good politics. Already, we have seen that Biden’s approval rating on Ukraine exceeds his overall approval rating. It’s a great chance to show leadership, competence and vision, three things Biden was elected to provide.
MURPHY: I agree, in the long term it can pay off politically. In the short term, I think Biden is hitting some bumps. Voters like results fast and in big flashy ways. Not so good for foreign policy. I do think Biden can up the ante on Putin a bit, and my guess is he will in Brussels. As we mentioned a few episodes ago on the podcast, it was a smart political/optic move to send him to Europe for a crisis meeting. It should help him this week.
MURPHY: Well as Mary Chapin Carpenter once sang about a lottery ticket, “The stars might lie but the numbers never do.” She didn’t have the votes.
GIBBS: As long as Murphy doesn’t sing, please! She’d have been a good addition to the Fed. But, politics sometimes gets in the way of good policy or good personnel.
MURPHY: As for the Progs, they make all the noise in the media from the House, turning the POTUS into a bystander. Makes him look weak, and that is bad political mojo. I know the Progs always say the voters love their stuff, but if that’s true why do Progs keep losing Democratic primaries (NYC mayor, Ohio Special election etc.)? And why do Dems keep losing House seats, even – as in 2020 – when the national vote is going for Biden? Last time the Dems had a smart Congressional campaign message was in 2018 with pre-existing conditions.
GIBBS: See my answer above to Brian.
Your Questions on Ukraine…
Sharon Pugh: Well, I have listened to some people who are involved in either state or defense departments and the consensus opinion was that the planes wouldn't accomplish what Zelenskyy wants. The point made was that the shoulder fired missiles were much better at controlling air strikes. We are providing Ukraine with weapons systems they don't have to be trained to use. Chemical warfare is the game changer. Since I don't work at State or Defense Departments, I am going to guess this is where we attack. Having never been a soldier nor a diplomat, I will be interested to see how we respond.
MURPHY: What the military people say they need most is heavy level anti-air missiles that can reach high altitudes (the shoulder launched man pads don’t go that high). That means bigger, more complicated iron. The Russian S-300 is one such system and some ex-Warsaw pact now NATO countries have them. The Ukrainians have that system too and know how to work it. The problem is the NATO members need a replacement if we send their systems over, and that’s where we could deploy Patriot systems. But my sources say the Biden guys are moving too slow on this, lotta lawyers and paperwork. Time to speed up, fast. On the MiGs, I think the optics of giving them may be even more important than how effective they’d be. Putin only understands strength.
GIBBS: I think Biden and the Administration are doing a good job. The irony of Turkey, who drew American ire by purchasing these weapons from Russia, sending S-300 or S-400 missiles to Ukraine would be quite a story. The crossed wires on the planes was regrettable in showing disunity, but otherwise it’s been an impressive display on diplomacy and weaponry. More will be needed in the days and weeks ahead. While we don’t have troops on the ground, we have a huge stake in the outcome of this war.
Carolyn Andrews: You seem to think the Ukraine war is a Biden vs putin thing. What makes you think Ukraine, NATO, and the EU have no say or skin in the game? Guess I'm tired of hearing about the potus, any potus, being the king of all things making the world spin on his say so. Influence? Yes. Putin direct opponent? Not so much.
GIBBS: The work of Europe and the US, plus others around the world uniting shows this is virtually everyone vs. Putin. It’s global world order vs. chaos. Putin wants this only to be about the U.S., so much so he forgot about the resolve of many, many others. And, he underestimated the Ukrainian resolve most of all. It may prove to be his undoing.
MURPHY: The Europeans have a ton of skin the game – it’s local to them – and they are very involved. Hell, the Germans are rearming. I think the best thing Biden has done is quickly united NATO. So I think that part is working fine. They’re moving more defensive NATO military power to the eastern border (announced this week). It’s a team thing with NATO working as planned.
Your Comment We Promise We Didn’t Write Ourselves…
Kevin Maser: As always, insightful and entertaining! Love the Earl Scheib clip, so many memories!
MURPHY: Any color you want! I remember the old spots on TV when I was growing up in Detroit.
TIDBITS
MURPHY: One last tidbit, from me. I think if Dale Carnegie were alive today, he’d burn his GOP membership card. The cheap – and rude – theatrics we’ve seen during these SCOTUS hearings are depressing. I’m fine with grilling the good Judge on her record, but the shrill Kabuki and lame theatrics are dumb and unhelpful. Even GOP primary voters will think this is too much. The Dems have pulled plenty of cheap moves in SCOTUS hearings in the past – I’m still trying to find out the secret evil lurking in nominee Robert Bork’s old video store rentals – but this huff and puffery is an embarrassment to both the Senate and the GOP. It’s also politically stupid.
GIBBS: It was embarrassing to watch. Just as we wrote Tuesday, this was about 2024, not about the Supreme Court in March 2022. And those Presidential wannabes definitely mistook rude for effective. It was shameful bullying. The theatrics of Lindsey Graham, too, were patently ridiculous, even for him. He voted for THIS very Judge to be on the second highest court of the land with the SAME record on sentencing he criticizes her for now. And we’re supposed to take this seriously? I had hoped Judge Jackson might get more than a handful of GOP votes, but given these tactics, I expect 2 Republicans (Collins? Romney?) is probably the ceiling. Maybe 3 with Murkowski? I’m not so sure given her Primary. Alas, the vote count doesn’t matter if she gets 51. When she does, her title will be Justice of the Supreme Court. That’s all that matters.
Have a great weekend. See you on Tuesday.
Murphy and Gibbs