A Big Day In The Big Apple
Hello Hackaroos,
Well it’s another primary Tuesday, this time in New York and Florida. We start with our take on the many interesting races happening in both states, including the unusually competitive matchups in New York (thanks to a whopper of a redistricting fumble on the Dems’ part). Then we give our take on the latest Congressional polling and Murphy gives an update on the Tory leadership race. Plus, a few tidbits.
Let’s begin…
The Empire State of Mind…
Source: Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) voting in his primary earlier today in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
MURPHY: Well Gibbsie, the moral of today’s primary story in New York is greed. A quick flashback: like many states, New York went through a redistricting process this year. Based on the latest census, Congressional redistricting is driven by population changes; some states lose population and lose districts while others gain population and districts. (The number of Congressional Districts doesn’t change.) So, when redistricting looms, incumbents get nervous. Will I lose my nice, safe district and have to, God Forbid, campaign in a tougher place to win? The parties, of course, both see redistricting as a choice opportunity to screw the other party out of as many districts as possible. So, state redistricting battles are full of drama and intrigue… there was once a notorious Congressional District in California – drawn by the inventive Waxman-Berman Democratic machine – that was only contiguous at low tide! The key to redistricting skullduggery is a party majority in the state legislature. If you have the legislative majority you have – in most places – the redistricting pen. Enter the one party state of New York. The Dems there control about everything and so they drew up a real war crime of a redistricting plan. It, of course, wound up in court and the judge found it so egregious that it was thrown out of consideration and a new judge-written plan replaced it. Whoops… a bit too greedy there, New York Democrats. So now, to their shock and rage, New York’s Democratic Members of Congress are facing their idea of Hell… a fair and aggressive new map that is forcing a Hunger Games style battle between incumbents caught in the same new district. It also doesn’t help that the court battle delayed the primaries until today – the dog days of summer – so turnout will be a big factor too. Gibbsie, let’s talk a few of these key primaries being – after long brawls – settled today in New York. My favorite is the axe fight between incumbent Dems Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, two long-time powerhouse Democrats now forced to battle it out in a new seat.
GIBBS: I once saw a popular movie set in New York where the main character told us all greed was good, Murphy! Alas, I agree, it’s a pretty big mess and now sadly they’re busy fighting each other. You’re right that the marquee race is between Nadler and Maloney, both Committee chairs and both running in the new 12th District, made up of parts of each of the Districts they represented in Congress for more than three decades. A third candidate, Suraj Patel, who has run against Maloney, could play spoiler. Nationally, this race may be most known for how the two veterans both hedged when asked in a debate about Joe Biden running for re-election. Next up, is the race for the new 17th Congressional District. Rep. Sean Maloney, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and had represented the 18th CD suddenly found himself on more competitive terrain. Because of that, he decided to shift to this new District. Yet, that wasn’t hailed by many as the 17th CD was represented by Mondaire Jones, a gay, Black freshman seen as an up and coming liberal. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went ballistic at Maloney’s decision to push Jones out or run against him and suggested he resign from leading the Democrats’ efforts to keep the House. She’s helped liberal State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi mount a primary against Maloney, who is not related to Carolyn, by the way. That decision left Congressman Jones to run in the new and open 10th District, a race that’s attracted a lot of candidates, meaning Jones is far from a sure thing to be heading back to Congress, despite an endorsement from Speaker Pelosi. The leading candidate here may be former House impeachment lawyer Daniel Goldman, who won the endorsement of the New York Times. Why is this seat open? It was the one Nadler represents now that he’s leaving for the new 12th District. See, one big, messy circle. Ok, take a short break…
Now, that you’ve caught your breath, there are two more interesting races to discuss. In NY-23, outright racist Carl Paladino, who during this race has called for the execution of Attorney General Merrick Garland (he said he was just kidding!) and said Hitler “was the type of leader we need today,” is running for the GOP nomination and likely to win. Lastly, and maybe the most telling race about November, is the special election in NY-19, to fill the very short remaining term of now Lt. Gov Antonio Delgado. Why is this race interesting? Many suspect it could be a bellwether district pitting a Democrat (Pat Ryan), who has made abortion a big issue, against a Republican (Marc Molinaro), whose focus has been on inflation and crime. Obama won this District in 2012, Trump won it in 2016 and Biden carried it in 2020. While we can easily over analyze these races, this one may tell us about the potency of certain issues just 11 weeks from Election Day.
As you can see, it’s messy, filled with a lot of drama and, as Murphy mentioned, August is an unpredictable time to hold an election in the waning days of a hot summer.
MURPHY: It’s also the big day in Florida where Charlie Crist (now a Democratic Member of Congress) is trying for a comeback as Governor, running in the primary against State Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. While Fried was once seen as a rising star in Florida Democratic politics, her gubernatorial effort has imploded and the former “Chain Gang” Charlie is strongly favored to win the primary. As Fried learned, Charlie Crist is a relentless politician. Gibbs, what say you on Florida, Florida, Florida?
GIBBS: Dems will be watching this closely to see if the eventual nominee (likely Crist) can rough Ron DeSantis up before he declares a run for the White House.
The Hacks On Tap Midterm Meter
GIBBS: Not a ton of surprises out of the new NBC News poll over the weekend except for two areas. The voter enthusiasm among the two parties is now roughly the same after a 17-point deficit in May for the Democrats. What happened in May? Politico reported on the leaked draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade. And, interestingly, “threats to democracy” has overtaken “cost of living” as the top voter issue. Not sure how much I buy that, but still interesting nonetheless. Usually in wave elections, one party enjoys a pretty lopsided advantage in voter enthusiasm, but Samuel Alito may have fixed that this year.
MURPHY: I agree, that jump in voter passion is an encouraging indicator for the Democrats. On the other hand, after a very good political month – big legislation passing, gas prices inching down, the chips bill, much better press – President Biden’s numbers are still stuck. Yikes. That is trouble for Democrats hoping for a big midterm comeback. There is still a bit of time left, but unless Biden can get his numbers up, it’s still gonna be clobbering time in the midterms, particularly in the House. Still, based on the improvement in Dem enthusiasm and the upward creep toward Democrats (thank you Roe) in the Congressional generic ballot (are you voting R or D for Congress this year?) we are lowering our DC Beltway Democrats’ Pearl Clutching Index by .3 points.
The Return of Murphy’s Tory Corner
MURPHY: So the UK elite political CW has been unanimous. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is way ahead in the Tory Leadership vote and cruising to an easy victory in September. Below is a chart the Telegraph does based on the latest odds England’s tireless bookies are giving in the contest.
Source: The Telegraph
A few half-baked thoughts from America: One, the data behind all this is weak. There is very little polling since the Tory party membership is a very tricky thing to poll. Second, the echo chamber factor in UK politics is very big. That can lead to missing big stuff, like, well, Brexit. So, I’d make a few points:
1.) Contender and ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has a Boris problem among the grass roots Membership. He’s seen as the sly and ambitious Brutus who stabbed the still popular with the troops Boris Johnson in the back. It’s a big problem for him and team Boris is stoking the dumpster fire on this.
2.) Liz Truss has gotten to Sunak’s right on taxes; grass-roots party contests within conservative leaning political parties are seldom about thoughtful and restrained tax cutting policy.
3.) Rishi has been effectively campaigning; he’s far better than Truss on the stump. In general, he gains votes with each public appearance. His problem is the media narrative screaming LOSER at him everyday.
4.) Both candidates foolishly passed on the opportunity to call into the all-powerful Hacks on Tap podcast. Critical error! Sir Winston is crying in his grave. Labour now probably wins the general election… or not.
My seat of pants guess: Rishi finishes better than expected, but it’s still Truss in the end. And while I cannot vote in the leadership (I have not been a Tory party Member long enough) if I did… I did promise I’d make an endorsement… of the two, Rishi Sunak would get my vote.
TIDBITS
GIBBS: My tidbit is the brutal write up in the Washington Post over the weekend about the National Republican Senatorial Committee and how it’s been managing its spending (or lack thereof). Whoever has been making the decisions over there to spend so little on actual ads doesn’t understand the way campaigns work. Murphy, what on Earth is going on over there?
MURPHY: This juicy battle has a lot of GOP consultant tongues wagging. Consultant crime family wars over who is grabbing the most tons of gravy out of the big spending NRSC is nothing new. I remember it as far back as the 80’s. Also nothing new are howling charges that a committee chair with Presidential ambitions is using the committee and its large political operation to further their own national primary ambitions over the election of more Republican Senators. (Back in ’95 Sen. Phil Gramm did everything but move the NRSC headquarters to Concord NH.) But this year the fighting is much more public and intense. Sen Rick Scott of Florida – the NRSC chair – is not the most popular member of the GOP Senate conference to begin with and his Presidential ambitions are well known (right alongside Senators Scott, Cotton, Cruz, Hawley, and a few more). Add to that the fast growing fear/panic within the GOP Senate orbit that the midterm Senate races are going sideways for the party in a year where Republican victories should be easier than usual… well the fireworks are understandable. Finally, while I haven’t seen the NRSC books – I’m now banned from most key Washington Republican zip codes – the numbers that have leaked about low TV spending in key races are very, very troubling. Stay tuned, this battle is only beginning.
GIBBS: Finally, Wednesday marks six months since the start of the battle in Ukraine. If we look back on it, we probably all are more than a little bit surprised that it's still happening, but that also tells you almost all you need to know. The Russian Army was a lot less than it was thought to be and the passion for preservation has aided the Ukrainians in their effort to keep their homeland. Ukraine now looks like it's more on the offensive with a new array of weapons. Nevertheless, it’s easy for it to disappear from the headlines here in the U.S. so worth continuing to acknowledge the fight happening against Putin.
See you on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs