7 Big Days for Biden
Hello Hackaroos,
We are one week away from the State of the Union and President Biden has a lot on his plate: Europe is at the brink of potentially “the largest, most violent battle for European territory since the Nazi surrender in 1945,” to quote the NYT’s David Sanger; he must announce a Supreme Court pick and then, of course, the busy POTUS must actually deliver his first State of the Union speech. Meanwhile, the President’s polling numbers continue to fall. This is one very big week in the Biden Presidency and that’s where we begin before some tidbits from the great state of Texas.
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Let’s begin…
PRESIDENT BIDEN’S SPLIT SCREEN PRESIDENCY
(Credit: Alexei Nikolsky / TASS)
GIBBS: Every week is important for a President, as time is the most precious resource of any Administration. But, the next seven days are going to be more important than most weeks. President Biden has a lot on his plate to get done between now and delivering his State of the Union speech in a week and we will watch the ups and downs of a split screen Presidency. Vladimir Putin’s fiery speech outlining his desire to undo the breakup of the Soviet Union yesterday and his recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states, sets in motion what the Biden Administration has been warning about for some time. The clock is ticking on some big decisions around announcing and implementing “swift and severe” sanctions. By the way, if you bet that the French proposed summit between Biden and Putin was actually going to happen, I have bad news for you. Now, while the Situation Room remains abuzz with meetings, let’s not forget Biden also promised to introduce his Supreme Court nominee by the end of February, as reports say the interview process is underway. And, finally, in a week, Joe Biden travels to Capitol Hill for what is almost always the biggest moment a President has in any given year (though that audience is decidedly less than it used to be). He'll have the biggest stage that a President has to lay out the state of our Union and where he wants to take his agenda going forward. The backdrop for this speech, one where more Americans feel the country is on the wrong track than they did just one year ago, comes with all of the foreign policy news of above almost surely making political problems such as inflation and energy costs go even higher. This is a very complicated week for this White House.
Among the challenges for him will be breaking through these events and driving the type of news coverage this White House needs the American people to see. It’s a big opportunity with more than the usual amount of pitfalls.
MURPHY: Couldn’t agree more on this one, Gibbsie. This will be a Helluva week for the POTUS. As we write this, ex-KGB Colonel Putin has decided to rescue the poor people of two disputed regions of Ukraine by sending in a few Russian armored divisions to merrily “keep the peace.” Peacemakers like that remind me of the old Cold War era joke about the frequent concerts in East German by the Red Army Band: “so popular they’ve been held over for 40 years…”
So the stakes are rising fast both in foreign and domestic policy. My hacky question about the politics of it is all is this: can Biden handle the communications side of it all is this? So far, it’s been no shortage of stumbles. The one lesson I took away from flunking out of Clown College is some people just can't juggle (*). I'm starting to think Biden is just not capable of operating in the public arena in a focused way to help his numbers. Don’t get me wrong, I think he has done an excellent job on the policy side of the Ukrainian crisis. (Trump would have given Putin the Ukraine and already destroyed the NATO alliance by now…)
So we will see. The mix of Ukraine, SOTU speech and a stalled domestic agenda has become a dire political threat to the already shaky situation the Dems are in vis a vis the midterms. Imagine White House life in a GOP-controlled Senate and House because that is the train that’s currently roaring down the tracks toward Bidenville. A new Berkeley IGS poll in solid blue California even shows Biden collapsing down to a 50/50 fav/unfav, with big drops among independent voters and even Democrats.
When it’s that bad in California for a Democratic POTUS, there is even a technical term for it: Iceberg ahead!
GIBBS: Since I began this edition of the newsletter talking about the precious resource of time, it’s a good moment to underscore just how much of the President and his staff’s time get sucked up during moments like we are seeing with Ukraine and Russia. Don’t get me wrong, these events are immensely consequential as the world watches. But, it also takes a lot of time, energy and brainpower away from everything else a President wants to do. Yes, any President has to walk and chew gum at the same time, but understand a ground war in Europe on the doorstep of NATO is a big, big occupier of time at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and throughout Washington, giving preciously little oxygen for other things.
MURPHY: I agree, it becomes a black hole, sucking everything into its huge gravity field. The opportunity cost is tremendous because Biden is in a time where he needs all hands on deck politically to try to manage a polling turnaround before October/November. When the polling numbers get this bad in a midterm, it can become a self-reinforcing feedback loop and then you are toast. o again, a very big moment. If he hits a triple – Ukraine narrative, SCOTUS (no risky pick!) and a strong, on-message, resonating SOTU speech… he’ll be back in business. If not… iceberg ahead.
TIDBITS
MURPHY: My tidbit is from the great state of Texas and the March first Democratic primary down in south Texas in the 28th CD. You’ve got the Bernie style prog, Jessica Cisneros, in a fight with venerable moderate Democrat, Henry Cuellar, in a district that the GOP could pick up this year. The race – a rematch from two years ago when Cuellar won, got even more interesting when the FBI paid a recent well-armed visit to Cuellar’s home and office. No charges – yet – and the Congressman says the FBI will clear him of any alleged wrongdoing. Cisneros says it’s time for a change and progressive one at that.
GIBBS: Well, unfortunately one of the big facets down in Texas 28 is that FBI raid on a house and an office…
MURPHY: Yup, the Dems are likely screwed either way – either nominate a Progressive the surging among Texas Latinos the Repubs can beat or they nominate a formerly strong moderate with a potentially fatal new problem. There is also a big statewide primary where AG Ken Paxton faces challengers including George P. Bush. Paxton leads, but a run-off with Bush is likely.
GIBBS: While we’re talking Texas, my tidbit is the new ballot access law there that’s led to thousands of absentee ballot applications rejected ahead of the primary next month. Just to be clear, that's not a bug in the law. That's the entire feature.
By the way, Murphy, any pictures of you at clown college?!
MURPHY: To quote the great Foghorn Leghorn (who actually stole the act from the great radio comic Kenny Delmar: “That’s a Joke, son!”)
See everyone on Friday!
Murphy and Gibbs